I ‘almost’ won

The brain can process “I almost won” not as a loss, but as a win.

In a study published in Neuron (Clark et al., 2009), participants found near-miss outcomes on a slot machine less pleasant than full misses. Yet their desire to keep playing increased. Brain imaging showed activation in the ventral striatum and insula—the circuitry that responds to actual monetary wins. Even though there was no monetary reward.

This striatal response is greater in people with pathological gambling than in controls (Sescousse et al., 2016). As gambling severity increases, so does the midbrain response (Chase and Clark, 2010).

The second driver is FOMO. A meta-analysis involving 21,473 participants found a consistent association between fear of missing out and problematic social networking use (Fioravanti et al., 2021). Financial FOMO is associated both with participation in stock and cryptocurrency trading and with the severity of problem gambling (Song et al., 2024).

A near miss looks to the past: “I was so close.” FOMO looks to the future: “I’m missing out.” Both send the same message: act now.

What helps:

1. Label “I was so close” accurately. It is a loss.
2. Set time and spending limits before the session.
3. Observe the urge without suppressing it. Mindfulness-based interventions have shown a moderate effect on gambling urges (Maynard et al., 2018).
4. Turn off notifications and stop the endless feed.
5. Seek support if you cannot stop yourself. CBT shows a large effect on gambling disorder severity (Pfund et al., 2023).

An honest caveat: the mechanism behind near misses remains debated, and most FOMO research is cross-sectional. The direction of causality is uncertain.

This content is for informational purposes and is not a substitute for diagnosis or treatment.

For scientific references → CLICK HERE